Premier League Betting Tips: 17-19 January 2026

Key takeaways (TL;DR)

• Manchester City’s eight‑game winning run ended recently, while United’s defence is depleted.
• Chelsea struggle for consistency but Brentford relish counter‑attacks.
• Aston Villa have lost once in 15 matches; Everton have one win in seven.
• Forest’s home record is poor; Arsenal are rampant with nine wins in ten.
• Bayern haven’t won in Leipzig for over three years, and defensive injuries could cost them.

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Manchester United v Manchester City: can Carrick inspire a miracle?

Michael Carrick has been thrust into the United hot seat after a dismal run that cost the previous manager his job. Centre‑back Matthijs de Ligt remains out until February and Noussair Mazraoui is still at AFCON, meaning United’s defence will again be makeshift. Their home form is patchy, with one win in six. City, by contrast, saw an eight‑game winning streak snapped at Sunderland and have been held to three straight league draws. Pep Guardiola’s men are also missing key defenders but still boast Erling Haaland, who has tormented United in recent derbies. Expect a cagey affair—five of the last seven Old Trafford derbies produced under 2.5 goals.

• Tip: Manchester City to win & under 3.5 goals. United lack cohesion and City’s defence often shuts games down.

Chelsea v Brentford: West London neighbours clash

This derby pits possession‑obsessed Chelsea against Brentford’s organised low block. The Blues have won just one of their last five games and often struggle to convert chances despite dominating the ball. Brentford, on the other hand, relish being underdogs; they’re compact, break quickly and threaten from set pieces. Three of the last five meetings saw both teams score.

• Tip: Both teams to score. Chelsea’s defensive lapses and Brentford’s sharp counters point to goals at each end.

Leeds United v Fulham: goals on the cards

Leeds’ seven‑game unbeaten run ended thanks to a late Newcastle goal, but Daniel Farke’s side remain solid at Elland Road, losing only twice all season. Returning attackers Brenden Aaronson and Sam Byram bolster their line‑up, while Dominic Calvert‑Lewin is closing in on double‑figure goals. Fulham arrive with 14 points from their last six league matches; Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez have been in sparkling form, helping the Cottagers score in 12 straight games. Fulham have also beaten Leeds in their last four meetings.

• Tip: Over 2 goals. Both sides attack well and have defensive frailties—expect entertainment.

Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham: capital shoot‑out?

Spurs’ campaign has nosedived: they have just one win in seven and none in the new year. An early FA Cup exit has increased pressure on Thomas Frank, and Tottenham’s leaky defence has conceded in each of their last three games. West Ham are even worse off, sitting 18th after nine league games without a win. They have conceded in 19 straight matches but have added Valentin Castellanos to strengthen the attack. Recent meetings favour Spurs (five wins to West Ham’s two) and West Ham’s porous defence suggests goals.

• Tip: Over 2.5 goals. Both teams concede regularly; expect a high‑scoring derby.

Aston Villa v Everton: fortress Villa Park

Unai Emery’s side are flying; they’ve lost only once in 15 matches and won 13 of those. Villa are top‑three contenders with 43 points and excel at Villa Park, pressing high and exploiting the flanks. Everton, meanwhile, have won just once in seven games. Sean Dyche has organised them into a compact, counter‑attacking unit but converting chances remains an issue.

• Tip: Aston Villa to win. Their aggressive home style and Everton’s goal‑shy attack tilt this in Villa’s favour.

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: top v bottom

Forest’s survival hopes hinge on improving a woeful home record—three losses in their last four at the City Ground. A morale‑boosting win over West Ham soon evaporated with an FA Cup defeat to Wrexham. Even with players like Sangaré and Boly returning, they lack consistency and creativity. Arsenal have won nine of their last ten matches in all competitions and sit top of the Premier League. Arteta isn’t resting stars; Saka, Gyökeres and Martinelli should all start. Arsenal haven’t conceded in the last three meetings.

• Tip: Arsenal to win to nil. The Gunners’ form and defensive solidity make a shutout likely.

RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich: Saxony showdown

Leipzig began the season with a humiliating 0‑6 defeat in Munich, but Ole Werner has his team in the top three despite dropping points in four of the last seven matches. They’re strong at home and welcome back Jan Diomande from AFCON. Bayern are setting records for points and goals but defensive injuries to Laimer, Stanisic and Boey weaken the right flank. Kompany’s side haven’t won in Leipzig for over three years, and seven of the last ten meetings have produced over three goals.

• Tip: Over 3.5 goals. Leipzig crave revenge, Bayern’s defence is patched up and previous meetings have been wide open.

Udinese v Inter: David v Goliath in Serie A

Udinese have taken just one win from their last five games and possess Serie A’s second‑worst defence (32 goals conceded). Inter, by contrast, top the table with 46 points and are unbeaten in five. Simone Inzaghi’s side boast the league’s best attack with 43 goals and have scored in seven consecutive matches. Udinese did beat Inter 2–1 in their last meeting but that looks like an outlier.

• Tip: Inter to win. Their quality and momentum should overwhelm Udinese’s brittle defence.

Real Betis v Villarreal: La Cartuja cracker

Betis have taken just one point from their first two league games of 2026 but remain sixth with 29 points. They’ve already lost three times at home this season and face a Villarreal side that excels on the road, collecting 16 points from eight away matches. The Yellow Submarine sit third with 41 points and have won 13 of 18 games. Betis are without creative talisman Isco after ankle surgery and miss Abde Ezzalzouli due to AFCON, while Villarreal also have several absentees but retain Ayoze Perez and Georges Mikautadze in attack.

• Tip: Villarreal draw no bet. Their away form and Betis’ injuries suggest the visitors avoid defeat.

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