Premier League Betting Tips: 3-5 March 2026

TL;DR: Key takeaways

• Bournemouth’s unbeaten run meets Brentford’s set‑piece mastery.
• Everton’s home woes contrast Burnley’s injury crisis.
• Leeds host Sunderland with Farke banned and just one key injury.
• Liverpool seek to extend a streak against low‑scoring Wolves.
• Villa and Chelsea duel for Europe amid midfield absences.
• Arsenal’s corner threat tests a resurgent Brighton.

Bournemouth v Brentford: Set‑Piece Shootout?

Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are on an eight‑game unbeaten run and draw more than anyone, thanks to late fightbacks and the exciting emergence of Brazilian youngster Rayan. They’ve netted 13 set‑piece goals but conceded 16 – the worst record in the league. Brentford arrive having won the last five meetings between these sides and have retooled their attack; Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara have combined for over 30 goals this term, while the Bees are also ruthless from dead‑ball situations.

• Tip: Back both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – neither defence convinces when defending corners and free‑kicks.

Everton v Burnley: Toffees Need a Fortress

Everton sit in eighth and are buzzing after a 3‑2 win at Newcastle, but they’ve won just four of 14 home games at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Manager David Moyes still wants more goals from his strikers and is missing Charly Alcaraz and Seamus Coleman, while Jack Grealish remains sidelined. Visitors Burnley are second‑bottom and threadbare; they’re missing Josh Cullen, Connor Roberts, Zeki Amdouni, Axel Tuanzebe, Armando Broja and more, and they arrive after a heartbreaking 4‑3 loss to Brentford.

• Tip: Everton to win and both teams to score. The Toffees’ attack should exploit Burnley’s patched‑up defence, but their shaky home form could allow the Clarets to nick one.

Leeds United v Sunderland: Promoted Clubs Collide

Leeds’ four‑match unbeaten run ended with a narrow loss to Manchester City, yet they’ve only lost three of 16 since early December. They’ve conceded in 10 of their last 11, however, and head coach Daniel Farke serves a touchline ban. The Whites have just one significant injury (Noah Okafor), so the line‑up should be settled. Sunderland haven’t won in nine away league games and have not beaten Leeds since 2023. They remain six points ahead of their hosts in the table but are nursing a long injury list that includes Cirkin, Mandava, Mundle and Brobbey.

• Tip: Both teams to score appeals; Leeds regularly concede but possess enough attacking spark to punish the Black Cats’ travel sickness.

Wolves v Liverpool: Lions Versus Lambs?

Wolves shocked Aston Villa recently but still sit bottom with just 13 points. They’ve failed to score in five of their last eight yet have taken points off three of the current top four. Liverpool, chasing Champions League football, come into this on a four‑game winning run and set a record with seven consecutive non‑penalty set‑piece goals. Arne Slot’s side have scored at least twice in six of their last nine games and have lost just one of their past ten away. With Florian Wirtz sidelined, Dominik Szoboszlai should continue behind Hugo Ekitike, while Jeremie Frimpong is fit again. Wolves’ teenage forward Mateus Mane will need another big night at Molineux.

• Tip: Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals. The Reds’ set‑piece dominance and attacking depth should overcome Wolves, but the hosts could grab a consolation.

Aston Villa v Chelsea: Midfield Puzzle

Aston Villa’s title hopes evaporated after a 2‑0 loss at Wolves, leaving them in a scrap for a top‑five finish. They’ve won only one of their last five and are missing key midfielders Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans; Harvey Elliott and Andres Garcia remain out too, although John McGinn might return. Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior saw his side draw with Leeds and Burnley before losing 2‑1 to Arsenal, leaving the Blues sixth. Wesley Fofana returns from suspension, but Pedro Neto is banned and Estevao Willian, Jamie Bynoe‑Gittens, Levi Colwill and possibly Marc Cucurella are all absent.

• Tip: Back the draw or both teams to score. Villa have already beaten Chelsea this season but lack midfield depth, while the visitors have been patchy of late.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal: Gunners Gunning for Corners

Brighton have picked up more league wins in their last two matches than in the previous 13 and remain tough to beat at the Amex, suffering just two home losses all season. However, they’ve won only two of their last eight at home and are dealing with injuries to Mats Wieffer, Yasin Ayari, Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas. Arsenal’s 2‑1 win over Chelsea came via two corner goals; Mikel Arteta’s men have equalled the Premier League record for corner goals in a season and are unbeaten in 11 away games, averaging 2.3 goals per away match since January. Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard and Ben White face fitness tests, but the Gunners have the deeper squad.

• Tip: Arsenal to win. Expect the visitors’ set‑piece prowess and away form to prove decisive, though Brighton’s newfound confidence might keep it lively.

Fulham v West Ham United: Capital Gains at the Cottage

After three straight February defeats, Fulham have won three on the bounce, including a 2‑1 derby victory over Tottenham. They’ve scored multiple goals in five of their last seven home games and are chasing a rare season sweep of West Ham after December’s late winner in east London. Harry Wilson is a doubt with an ankle knock and winger Kevin faces surgery, but Marco Silva may welcome back Joachim Andersen and Sasa Lukic. West Ham’s defence has conceded 54 league goals and a league‑high 16 from set pieces; they were 3‑0 down by half‑time at Anfield at the weekend. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have improved slightly, collecting 11 points from their last seven outings, but they remain 18th and have lost seven of eight London derbies this season.

• Tip: Fulham to win. Their attacking momentum and West Ham’s set‑piece frailties suggest another derby triumph for the Cottagers.

Manchester City v Nottingham Forest: Champions‑Elect vs Strugglers

Manchester City have won six straight matches in all competitions and four consecutive Premier League games. Antoine Semenyo stepped in for the injured Erling Haaland to secure a 1‑0 win at Leeds, and the Citizens are unbeaten in 13 home matches, winning the last seven. Pep Guardiola has a formidable midweek home record, winning 24 of 26 Premier League home games on Wednesdays. Haaland, Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol are doubts, but the Etihad remains a fortress. Nottingham Forest, under their fourth manager of the season Vitor Pereira, have lost 10 of 12 league games and have never won away to City, losing the last three by an aggregate 11‑0. They’re missing several players, including Stefan Ortega, John Victor, Chris Wood and Willy Boly.

• Tip: Man City to win to nil. Expect the champions to maintain their streak and a clean sheet against a Forest side bereft of confidence.

Newcastle United v Manchester United: St James’ Park Jitters

Manchester United are flying under interim boss Michael Carrick, collecting 19 points from 21 and showing resilience with six wins, four of them by one‑goal margins. Bruno Fernandes already has 13 assists and seven goals, while Benjamin Sesko has netted seven in his last eight appearances. The Red Devils are unbeaten in five away games but haven’t won at St James’ Park since 2020. Newcastle are spiralling, with five defeats in six league matches and three consecutive home losses, shipping eight goals against Aston Villa, Brentford and Everton. They have injuries to Tino Livramento, Lewis Miley and Bruno Guimaraes, and may recall Sven Botman.

• Tip: Manchester United to win or both teams to score. Newcastle’s leaky defence should give United chances, but the Magpies often raise their game on Tyneside.

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace: London Derby Blues

Tottenham are the only club without a Premier League win in 2026 and have matched a club‑record 10‑game winless run after four successive defeats. Manager Igor Tudor criticised his players for lacking in all thirds, and injuries have ravaged his side; Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, Mohammed Kudus, Rodrigo Bentancur, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison are all out, while Cristian Romero is suspended. Spurs fans are clamouring for Mathys Tel to start alongside in‑form Richarlison. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have won three of their last six in all competitions and boast a strong record in London derbies away from home, losing just once in nine. They’re without suspended centre‑back Maxence Lacroix and have injuries to Cheick Doucoure, Eddie Nketiah, Jean‑Philippe Mateta and Jefferson Lerma, but Oliver Glasner’s men have nothing to fear against a faltering Tottenham.

• Tip: Both teams to score. Tottenham’s defence is leaking, and Palace’s counter‑attacking pace could trouble them, even if the hosts finally end their winless run.

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